Forecast: Ogden Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Sunday morning, January 12, 2020

We have a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on all steep upper elevation slopes where westerly winds have deposited fresh drifts of wind blown snow. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are likely. There is a MODERATE danger on all low and mid elevations slopes for triggering soft slab and loose snow avalanches.

Heads up if riding near Farmington or Bountiful - scroll to the bottom for more info

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Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

As the storm exits this morning we will continue to see snow showers into the early morning before it tapers off. Mountain temperatures are in the single digits °F at upper elevations and hovering in the teens °F at lower elevation trailheads. The westerly winds did chill out in the overnight hours and are currently blowing 5-10 mph with gusts into the 20's in exposed terrain. In the past 24 hrs the Ogden range picked up 8"-12" of new snow containing 0.60"-1.10" of water.

This afternoon we have one last wave coming through the mountains that will bring 1-3" of new snow on a southwest flow. Winds are not expected to increase. Later this evening a stronger storm will move into the area and we can expect another 8-14" of new snow by Monday afternoon. It looks to be a very snowy week with another storm on tap Tuesday followed by a stronger and more organized system on Thursday. Bring it!

Riding and turning conditions are all time with powder on all aspects and elevations.

Recent Avalanches

Backcountry observers reported the new snow was sensitive yesterday and many were able to trigger small avalanches within the new snow on tests slopes. In Bountiful an observer noted wind slabs just off the ridge that were 12"-14" deep 30-40' wide and running 500' vertical feet downhill. There were a number of great observations from the Ogden area yesterday and you can find them HERE.

Type

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Likelihood

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Description

Yesterday the westerly winds blew steady across the upper elevation ridgelines with speeds of 10-15 mph gusting into the 20's and 30's. Today those winds have slowed and are currently blowing 5-15 mph with gusts into the low 20's. With so much snow available for transport you can expect wind drifted snow avalanches. The bad news, is that any new drift from yesterday will be covered and hidden by the new snow.

Wind Drifted Snow is often highly variable, but, it's typically found on leeward slopes, in gullies, bowls, and near distinct changes in slope angle. Often it looks rounded, wavy, and pillowy. These soft slabs will be large enough to catch, carry, or bury a person. Shooting cracks are an obvious clue to unstable snow. Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making will be essential today.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

In the past 24 hrs we've received 8"-12" inches of new snow. You can expect the new snow to produce soft slab avalanches failing within the storm snow as well as dry loose avalanches that will be easy to initiate in steep terrain. I am unsure just how touchy the new snow will be today. However, think about the terrain you're in and if you're wrong about the stability where do you end up? places like terrain traps, and gullies will only increase the odds of being buried deep. Use small test slopes and shovel tilt tests to see how the new snow is reacting.

Additional Information

Mark Staples rode in the mountains above Bountiful (video) in the Salt Lake forecast zone, and was shocked to find a that formed just before New Years on ALL ASPECTS. He dug over half a dozen snowpits at elevations between 8-9000 feet and got the same unstable results in all places. We have not seen a weak layer like this in the Ogden area mountains, except I found a hint of it on Wednesday at North Ogden Divide. Yesterday, an observer searched for this layer in the Snowbasin backcountry and found what Mark Staples found. You can view his observation HERE.

What to do? Before committing to a steep slopes, I would dig 3 feet deep and perform an Extended Column Test (ECT) on a small slope or a low angle slope with a similar aspect and elevation to the slope you hope to ride. If the ECT fractures across the entire column, that is bad and I would not ride the slope. Let us know what you find.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

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