Forecast: Ogden Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Sunday morning, December 22, 2019

A more widespread and tricky MODERATE danger exists for wind drifts on a variety of aspects and elevations. These windslabs are increasingly unmanageable. Lastly - and I can't believe I'm saying this - wet loose sluffs may also be triggered in warm, wind sheltered terrain and may pile up more deeply in terrain traps.

Strange weather causes strange avalanches.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Final report for the Dutch Draw avalanche fatality is available HERE. Consider donating to the Matt Tauszik Memorial Fund to help his wife and young son.

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Weather and Snow

Warm and windy. At least we won't get much snow out of these series of storms. Skies are overcast with temperatures into the mid-elevations suffering through almost 36 hours of well-above freezing temperatures. Adding insult to injury are the strong winds, even in the mid-elevations. Ridgeline anemometers along the Ogden skyline are averaging 50-60mph with gusts to 75. Snow surface conditions are pretty well hammered by the sun, wind, and warm temps. At least the inversion has weakened somewhat.

Looking ahead, we'll see some cooling temps tonight, light snowfall Christmas Eve, and unsettled weather through the week.

Our Week in Review - summarizing the significant weather and avalanche events of the past week - can be found here.

Recent Avalanches

Skiers triggered two new wind slab avalanches yesterday. One was quite small at 4" deep and 15' wide, but the other was in more heavily wind loaded terrain. This second slide was 1-3' deep and perhaps 100' wide on a northeast facing slope at 8100'.

Mike Fogg has an excellent observation from Monte Cristo HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Thicker and more widespread. The southwest winds will continue to scour and erode any available snow and deposit it in the form of a checkerboard of soft and hard wind drifts in the mid and upper elevations, even in odd and unusual locations.

In some areas, these drifts may land on weak snow surfaces formed over the past week and may be surprisingly sensitive. These areas are more likely sun and wind sheltered terrain where the weak snow surfaces are not as susceptible to decay. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that some are triggered at a distance today or tomorrow.

Drifts are often smooth, scalloped, and rounded (see Tom Diegel's excellent photo below of texture and cracking) and are often formed to the lee of terrain features such as ridgelines, sub-ridges, and rocky outcroppings. Soft wind slabs you're "in the snow" with your sled or skis; hard wind slabs you're "on top of the snow". Hard slabs are often trickier because they allow you to get well on to them before the collapse where the wind pillow/teardrop lens shape tapers down.

Danger Trend: Steady to Increasing

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

I have to be honest. I am not sure what to make of these temperatures. Shady and sheltered snow surfaces have had a poor-at-best refreeze and may become wet and unstable. There'll be no secrets, though - you'll see if the snow surfaces are deteriorating (rollerballs, sluffing) and make decisions accordingly. Avoid being in and above terrain traps where the snow may pile up more deeply.

Additional Information

Snowbasin ski patrol noted a much larger avalanche during last week's storm south of the ski area. Photos below.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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