Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Greg Gagne
Issued by Greg Gagne on
Monday morning, February 25, 2019
Areas of CONSIDERABLE danger exist in the upper elevations of the Provo mountains where deep avalanches breaking down to the ground are possible. Westerly winds will also drift snow at the mid and upper elevations. Although any drifts you encounter are likely to be found on aspects facing north through southeast, cross-loading may create drifts on any aspect.
Watch for wet loose activity today in the lower elevations as the cold, dry snowpack may be reactive to today's warmth and cloud cover.
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Special Announcements
Weather and Snow
Currently: Temperatures are in the 20's F. in the Provo mountains, and winds are southwesterly. Winds are averaging in the teens and 20's mph, but along upper elevation ridges are gusting into the 30's and 40's.
For Today: Snow showers are possible today, and we'll be lucky to pick up a a trace to 1” new snow. Skies will be mostly cloudy and temperatures warming into the 30’s. Winds will continue to blow out of the west, averaging in the teens and 20's mph at the mid and upper elevations, with gusts in the 30’s. At 11,000' gusts in the 40's mph can be expected.
For this Week: A mild westerly flow with warm temperatures and windy conditions. We may pick up a trace to 1" of new snow every occasional 12-hour period. Nothing to get excited about. A hint of a promising colder storm late this coming week, but waiting for weather models to come into agreement before we get any confidence in that system.
Recent Avalanches
One possibly snowmobile triggered avalanche reported from Friday in the UFO Bowls north of Aspen Grove. These are steep, east to northeast facing avalanche prone paths at 9500-10,000'. (pc: Barber). Many other large avalanches have occurred in the past week in the high elevations, particularly along the Cascade ridgeline. The Mill Canyon Peak area also had numerous avalanches in the past week as well.
More reports from avalanching this past week in the Provo mountains continue to drift in. The photo below from Carey Pierce is on a west-facing aspect on Loafer mountain at approximately 9600'.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Westerly winds will continue to drift snow at the mid and upper elevations. Although most drifts will be found on leeward aspects facing north through southeast, cross-loading and the winds being channeled through terrain mean drifts may be possible on any aspect at the mid and upper elevations. These drifts will generally be 6-12" thick, and may break out widely in open, exposed terrain, possibly breaking above you.
Cornices are quite large along upper elevation ridgelines - avoid traveling anywhere near the edge of ridges as cornices may break back much further than expected. Click to view this photo from Nathan Chaszeyka which illustrates how cornices have formed on both sides of an upper elevation ridgeline in the Salt Lake mountains.)
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Assessing the snowpack in the Provo area mountains in avalanche terrain at mid and upper elevations on NW, N, NE, E aspects (and upper elevation SE) is difficult. Recent natural avalanches have broken at the ground in the Provo mountains, and control work on Sunday at a Cottonwood resort in the Salt Lake mountains produced a slide breaking down 3-4' deep in facets at the ground . Although it is hard to assess the likelihood of triggering one of these avalanches, the consequences of getting involved in one is likely deadly. The only mitigation strategy we have is to avoid avalanche terrain for now.
Photo: Zoomed in view of the natural avalanche that was spotted earlier this week.
Additional Information
It's been a pretty good run this winter and many snow stations across the state are well above average. Snow depths sit at 90-100"+ and the Timp Divide snotel site is below. The blue line is this year. A statewide map can be found here.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.