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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Sunday morning, December 26, 2021
The avalanche danger is HIGH on upper elevation aspects facing northwest through north and east where strong winds and recent snowfall have created dangerous avalanche conditions. Both natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely. Travel in or below avalanche terrain is not recommended on northwest/north/east aspects at the upper elevations.
There is a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on mid and upper elevation aspects facing west through south and southeast. Low elevations have a Moderate avalanche danger.
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Avalanche Warning
THE AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH WITH DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS.
AN AVALANCHE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF MUCH OF THE STATE OF UTAH, INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE...BEAR RIVER RANGE...UINTA MOUNTAINS...AND THE MANTI-SKYLINE.
HEAVY DENSE SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS HAVE CREATED DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS. BOTH HUMAN TRIGGERED AND NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES.
Special Announcements
Avalanche conditions are very dangerous across most of the State of Utah as discussed by our staff in this video.
Weather and Snow
A cold front is rapidly approaching the Wasatch this morning and we'll see another good shot of snow with this system. Many areas will see 8-12" of new snow by the time it rolls east ahead of another, much colder storm for Monday.
Temperatures are in the upper teens and low 20s.
As my colleague Eric Trenbeath likes to say, though, The Story is the Wind.
South to southwesterly winds increased overnight with hourly averages of 30-40mph. Gusts have reached near 80mph.
For today, look for heavy snowfall rates around 8-10am with 2"/hour expected. Winds will shift to the west with frontal passage but remain moderate/borderline strong. Temperatures will be in the low 20s.
We have another storm on tap for Monday that'll produce another round of snow. Temperatures crash to the low single digits with this storm. Another foot or more of snow is possible by Monday night.
Recent Avalanches
Control work from Ogden-area resorts reported pockety wind slabs in steep terrain. A couple explosive triggered avalanches into older weak snow from October have occurred in the past couple of days in the upper elevation northerly aspects.
My observation from the Cutler Ridge of Ben Lomond can be found HERE>. In general, the winds were howling but I did not note any fresh avalanches. I did experience one collapse and shooting crack on a mid elevation northerly slope and found the PWL to be reactive in snowpit tests (old grey weak snow noted in bottom of photo). I stayed on very low angle terrain.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Recent snowfall and strong winds have overloaded a persistent weak layer (PWL) of faceted snow down near the ground on mid and upper elevation aspects facing northwest through north and east. This weak layer formed from snow that fell earlier this Autumn, and once we buried this weak layer beginning on December 9, the PWL has become reactive with avalanching on every loading event of new snow and/or wind.
Avalanches failing on this weak layer may be triggered remotely (from a distance) or from below. Any avalanche failing on this PWL may break down 2-4' deep (possibly deeper) and propagate hundreds of feet wide.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong winds have created dense wind drifts on all aspects at the mid and upper elevations. Although the winds have been from the west/southwest, winds this strong can channel snow around terrain features and create fresh drifts on all aspects, including well-down off of ridge lines. You may even find fresh wind drifts at unusually low elevations below 8,000'.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
New snow avalanches will be particularly sensitive during the morning hours during high snowfall rates. Natural avalanches may be possible in the steepest terrain...Avalanches may also be triggered at a distance during this time.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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