Forecast: Ogden Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Issued by Greg Gagne on
Saturday morning, December 25, 2021

The avalanche danger is HIGH on upper elevation aspects facing northwest through north and east where strong winds and recent snowfall have created dangerous avalanche conditions. Both natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended on west/north/east aspects at the upper elevations.

There is a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on upper elevation aspects facing west, through south and southeast, as well as all mid-elevation aspects. Low elevations have a Moderate avalanche danger.

Increasingly dangerous avalanche conditions are expected for Sunday with heavy snowfall and strong winds forecasted.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Avalanche Warning

THE AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH WITH DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS.

AN AVALANCHE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF MUCH OF THE STATE OF UTAH, INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE...BEAR RIVER RANGE...UINTA MOUNTAINS...AND THE MANTI-SKYLINE.

HEAVY DENSE SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS HAVE CREATED DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS. BOTH HUMAN TRIGGERED AND NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES.

Special Announcements

Avalanche conditions are very dangerous across most of the State of Utah as discussed by our staff in this video.

Weather and Snow

Winter Solitude

in a world of one colour

the sound of the wind.

- Bashō

Very strong winds from the west/southwest at all elevations highlight the weather this morning.

At the highest ridgelines winds are averaging in the 30's and 40's mph with gusts in excess of 70 mph;
mid-elevation wind speeds average in the teens and 20's with gusts in the 40's mph;
low-elevations are seeing gusts in the 20's and 30's mph.

Temperatures range through the 20's F.

Anywhere from 1-3" new snow reported from overnight, although such strong winds make accurate reporting challenging. Snow/Water totals since Friday morning range from 8-13" containing 1.1 - 1.7" of water.

For today, strong west/southwest winds will continue. At the mid elevations winds will average in the teens and 20's with gusts in the 40's mph. Highest elevations will experience wind speeds averaging in the 30's with gusts in the 60's mph. A few inches of snow is likely throughout the day. Temperatures will rise into the 20's and low 30's F.

Snowfall and moderate to strong winds overnight with a sharp cold front on Sunday morning with heavy snowfall forecasted for Sunday.

Recent Avalanches

Control work from Ogden-area resorts reported avalanche activity on northerly slopes breaking into old snow. This occurred in effectively backcountry terrain in areas that have not been opened or had undergone prior avalanche control work this season.

Derek DeBruin visited the Lewis Peak area on Friday and provides his usual excellent observations.

There is an observation from the Salt Lake mountains that I want to include today as the writeup is an honest and humble assessment of so many different "human factors" at work: One skier-triggered backcountry avalanche was reported from the Red Pine trees on an east aspect at 9,100'. The avalanche was 2' deep and 80' wide, breaking down into old, faceted snow. Fortunately no one was caught. I especially appreciate this group's assessment and how this avalanche occurrence will affect future decision-making. Thank you for the observation and thoughtful write-up.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Recent snowfall and strong winds have overloaded a persistent weak layer (PWL) of faceted snow down near the ground on mid and upper elevation aspects facing west through north and east. This weak layer formed from snow that fell earlier this Autumn, and once we buried this weak layer beginning on December 9, the PWL has become reactive with avalanching on every loading event of new snow and/or wind.

We have overloaded this weak layer with strong west/southwest winds and snowfall containing well over an inch of water weight, creating dangerous avalanche conditions where this PWL is present.

Avalanches failing on this weak layer may be triggered remotely (from a distance) or from below. Any avalanche failing on this PWL may break down 2-4' deep (possibly deeper) and propagate hundreds of feet wide.

Do not travel on or below slopes approaching 30 degrees or steeper on mid and upper elevation aspects facing west through north and east.

The photo below shows the poor structure of strong snow over weak snow.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Strong winds have created dense wind drifts on all aspects at the mid and upper elevations. Although the winds have been from the west/southwest, winds this strong can channel snow around terrain features and create fresh drifts on all aspects, including well-down off of ridge lines. You may even find fresh wind drifts at unusually low elevations.

On mid and upper elevation slopes facing northwest through north and east, these drifts will overload the buried layer of weak faceted snow down near the ground.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

You may find sensitive slabs of soft snow today, especially if you experience any period of higher precipitation intensity.

General Announcements

Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures