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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples on
Tuesday morning, April 5, 2022
Today the avalanche danger is MODERATE at upper elevations where unstable soft slabs of wind drifted snow most likely exist. These wind slabs will be shallow. How dangerous they are will be determined by the terrain you're in. The danger at mid and low elevations is LOW but there could be some fresh wind slabs at these elevations to look out for as well.
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Weather and Snow
This morning it's warm, windy, raining, and snowing. Temperatures have dropped about 20 degrees since midnight. It appears that 2-3 inches of snow has fallen on the east side of the Ogden Valley near Powder Mountain and the Monte Cristo area while just a trace of precip has fallen on the west side near Ben Lomond and Mt. Ogden. Winds from the north and from the west have been averaging 20-34 mph and gusting 40-60 mph. Even at low elevations winds have been gusting in the 30s.
Today a bit more snow will fall, maybe another inch or two. Temperatures will be in the teens F near 9000 ft and in the 20s F at mid and low elevations. Strong winds will continue from the west and will ease some this afternoon.
The rest of the week should be warm and dry with a ridge of high pressure dominating the weather. Things begin changing Saturday with (according to the National Weather Service) a "pattern flip to a more wet and cool period". Some snow may fall early next week but no major storms are in the long range forecasts.
As for the snow, warm and very windy weather overnight has created a highly variable snow surface that was mostly warm and damp last night but should be refreezing this morning.
Recent Avalanches
There has been no recent avalanche activity.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
West winds plus a few inches of new snow have formed shallow soft slabs of wind drifted snow at upper elevations. You may find a few of these wind slabs at mid and low elevations where they likely bonded to the warm and wet snow surface. The main threat from theses wind slabs is that they could knock your off your feet and causes a fall.
Heads up - The snow was damp from warm temperature and rain just before snow began falling. As air temperatures quickly cool this morning, a strong temperature gradient could form some very small facets just under the new snow. I mention this possibility because it means that any wind slabs could remain unstable for a number of days this week. I was caught in an avalanche from this exact situation years ago on May 1st on a high elevation north facing slope at the top of a couloir.

General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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