Forecast: Ogden Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Sunday morning, January 3, 2021

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on all steep upper elevation slopes. You will also find a MODERATE avalanche danger on steep slopes facing west to north to east at the mid-elevations.

Human-triggered avalanches are possible on these slopes, especially if they have a denser slab of wind-blown snow on top of weaker, faceted snow.

All other aspects have a LOW avalanche danger.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Several new blogs have recently been published.

UAC forecasters Paige Pagnucco and Greg Gagne discussing danger ratings and persistent weak layers.

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Weather and Snow

Under mostly cloudy skies, the current mountain temperatures are in the mid-twenties °F. Upper elevation free air winds (10,000') are from the west-southwest and blowing 30-40 mph gusting 50. Ridgetop (8,000'-9,500') winds are also from the west-southwest blowing 10-20 mph.

A weak storm will cross into northern Utah this morning, and snow should fill around 10:00 am. This storm is forecasted to bring 2-5" (0.15"-0.40" water) of new snow and an increase in wind speeds on a northwest flow. Winds could reach 25-35 mph with gusts into the 50's at the upper elevations. Ridgetop speeds will also increase to 15-25 mph gusting into the 30's.

Monday into Tuesday's trough is still on track, and we should see 4-8" of new snow by Wednesday morning. After that, the flow begins to split once again, and we are back to the dribs and drabs of snow for the rest of the extended forecast. For the optimistic fans - there is a larger trough in the forecast models on the 16th.

Our Week in Review for Dec 25-31 has been published. Catch up on the significant weather and avalanche events from this past week.

Recent Avalanches

There continue to be reports of large collapsing in the Ogden area while traveling, but yesterday no new avalanches were reported in the backcountry.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Throughout Utah, dangerous slabs of snow hang in the balance on many aspects and elevations from west to north to easterly facing terrain at the mid and upper elevations. With every bump in wind speed and or new snow (weight) added to our fragile snowpack, I am over here biting my nails, waiting for the snowpack to become unglued, or waiting to hear of an avalanche accident somewhere in Utah.

This poor snowpack structure is enough for me to avoid all steep upper elevation shady terrain altogether. It's just not the year for steep riding in the Wasatch. If you're new to dealing with Persistent Weak Layer issues, head to a low angle slope with nothing steep overhead or adjacent to you and pull out the shovel and dig to the ground. You will see strong snow over very fragile and weak faceted snow.

Human-triggered avalanches are possible today, and these avalanches can be large enough to catch, carry, bury, and kill a person. Avoidance is the key to longevity in the mountains.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

With a bump in wind speeds over the past 24hrs I would think there are some new soft and hard drifts of wind-blown snow across the upper elevation ridges and terrain features. If there are any signs of drifting snow, such as obvious transport, cracking, and pillow-shaped snow, avoid those slopes. Triggering an avalanche that initially fails in the wind-drifted snow will likely break down more deeply into the weak faceted snow below.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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