Forecast: Ogden Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Saturday morning, January 11, 2020

Today, will be a day of RISING avalanche danger. We have a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on all steep upper elevation slopes where westerly winds have deposited fresh drifts of wind blown snow. There is a MODERATE danger on all mid elevations slopes. The avalanche danger could spike rapidly today depending on how fast the snow falls. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are likely.

There are two avalanche problems to watch for: (1) soft slabs of wind drifted snow, and (2) sluffing within the new snow. Here's the thing - the danger can vary widely. Any wind loaded slope will be more likely to produce an avalanche than a non-wind loaded slope. The danger ratings reflect general trends.

Heads up if riding near Farmington or Bountiful - scroll to the bottom for more info

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

Under increasingly cloudy skies the mountain temperatures are hovering in the mid to upper teens °F. Westerly winds picked up in the last few hours and are currently blowing 15-20 mph gusting into the mid to low 30's at the upper elevations. Mid elevation winds are blowing 10-15 mph. Wind on Ogden Peak is nuking with speeds of 35-40 mph gusting into the mid 40's.

For today, we can expect snowfall to begin around 8:00 am this morning with heavy snow at times. We could see periods of heavy snowfall with 1-2" inches of new snow per hour this morning. The forecast is 5-10" of new snow throughout the day today with a storm total of 12-18" of new snow by Sunday morning. The westerly winds are forecasted to remain steady out of the west for most of the morning before calming down this afternoon. Later this evening and overnight we will see another round of snow and the winds will increase once again.

The National Weather Service released a mountain weather briefing yesterday afternoon and it can be found below in additional information.

Recent Avalanches

Ski areas triggered some small soft slabs of wind drifted snow yesterday. They also triggered loose snow sluffs in the new snow in steep terrain. There were two new observations from the Ogden area and you can find them HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Westerly winds picked up last night around 8:00 pm. Currently they are blowing steady 15-20 mph gusting into the upper 30's across the ridgelines. With snow much snow available for transport it will be no surprise to see Wind Drifted Snow avalanches today. Look for and avoid any new drift of wind blown snow. Wind Drifted Snow often looks rounded, wavy, and pillowy. It won't take a lot of wind to whip the five star powder into soft slabs of wind drifted snow. These soft slabs could become large enough to catch, carry, bury or kill a person. Cracking is an obvious clue to unstable snow.

Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making will be essential today.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The wild card will not be how much new snow falls today. It will be the RATE at which the new snow falls. We call this precipitation intensity - as of now we are forecasted to hit rates of 1-2" of new snow per hour this morning. If this happens the avalanche danger could spike rapidly and possibly reach considerable on all aspects. Keep an eye to the sky, if the snow rate rapidly increases and you start seeing loose snow avalanches trickling down you know the danger is on the rise and it's time to alter your plans accordingly.

Small test slopes and shovel tilt tests will give you a clue into the new snow instabilities. It's deep out there and places like terrain traps, and gullies will only increase the odds of being buried deep.

Additional Information

Mark Staples rode in the mountains above Bountiful (video) in the Salt Lake forecast zone, and was shocked to find a that formed just before New Years on ALL ASPECTS. He dug over half a dozen snowpits at elevations between 8-9000 feet and got the same unstable results in all places. We have not seen a weak layer like this in the Ogden area mountains, except I found a hint of it on Wednesday at North Ogden Divide.

What to do? Before committing to a steep slopes, I would dig 3 feet deep and perform an Extended Column Test (ECT) on a small slope or a low angle slope with a similar aspect and elevation to the slope you hope to ride. If the ECT fractures across the entire column, that is bad and I would not ride the slope. Let us know what you find.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

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