Forecast: Ogden Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Issued by Mark Staples on
Friday morning, January 10, 2020

Today, upper and mid elevations with the strongest winds and most snow have a MODERATE danger. Low elevations with less snow and less wind have a LOW avalanche danger.

There are two avalanche problems to watch for: (1) soft slabs of wind drifted snow, and (2) sluffing within the new snow. Here's the thing - the danger can vary widely. Any wind loaded slope will be more likely to produce an avalanche than a non-wind loaded slope. The danger ratings reflect general trends.

Heads up if riding near Farmington or Bountiful - scroll to the bottom for more info

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

Since yesterday morning, another 4-5 inches of very light snow has fallen. An inch or so fell yesterday morning while most of it fell overnight. This snow fell on top of 3-5 inches that fell yesterday. Total water amounts in the last 48 hours are about 0.5-0.7 inches.

Winds increased early this morning and are averaging 10-15 mph and gusting 20-30 mph at ridgetops from the WNW. A few lower elevation sites are showing gusty winds around 20 mph.

Temperatures are in the upper single digits and low teens F.

Today snowfall should be winding down as I'm writing this. Winds will slowly trend downward but will remain somewhat strong this morning from the WNW. Skies should clear today and become sunny but temperatures may only warm into the low to mid 20s F. More snow returns Saturday morning. See the graphic from the National Weather Service at the bottom of the page.

A ice crust formed on south-facing slopes after the snow surface warmed and got wet on Tuesday but is now buried 6-12 inches deep.

Recent Avalanches

Ski areas triggered some small soft slabs of wind drifted snow yesterday. They also triggered loose snow sluffs in the new snow in steep terrain.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Increased winds this morning will easily transport the new snow and form soft slabs of wind drifted snow. The new snow is very light and even the slightest wind can move it. These soft wind slabs can produce avalanches today because they are resting on very low density snow which will be the weak layer on which they will fracture.

Look for wind drifted snow on all aspects above 7000 feet which are the mid and upper elevations. Sometimes slopes are loaded by winds from the top or sometimes they are loaded from winds blowing across slopes. With some gusty low elevation winds, look for wind drifting in isolated places at low elevations.The good news about this avalanche problem is that it is easy to identify visually.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The new snow was easily sluffing yesterday. With more very light snow falling overnight, it should sluff easily today. These sluffs typically break at your feet and are not a major concern. However, watch for terrain traps like gullies or creeks where sluffs can pile up deeper.

Additional Information

Yesterday, I rode in the mountains above Bountiful (video) in the Salt Lake forecast zone, and was shocked to find a that formed just before New Years on ALL ASPECTS. We dug over half a dozen snowpits at elevations between 8-9000 feet and got the same unstable results in all places. We have not seen a weak layer like this in the Ogden area mountains, except I found a hint of it on Wednesday at North Ogden Divide.

What to do? Before committing to a steep slopes, I would dig 3 feet deep and perform an Extended Column Test (ECT) on a small slope or a low angle slope with a similar aspect and elevation to the slope you hope to ride. If the ECT fractures across the entire column, that is bad and I would not ride the slope. Let us know what you find.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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