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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Sunday morning, December 15, 2019
The avalanche hazard is CONSIDERABLE in the upper elevations and MODERATE elsewhere. Human triggered avalanches 1-2' are possible and caution is warranted in all steep terrain. Proper assessmeent and safe travel protocol is key.
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Weather and Snow
Wow. Storm totals are roughly 20-30" (2.5-4.0"SWE) and coverage is over 4' up high and nearly 3' down low. Winds are reportedly calm to light from the west, but this may be from riming as reported from Derek Debruin on Ben Lomond yesterday. Temps are in the single digits to low teens. We sit at well over 100% of average (thanks to our friends at the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.
We've been working on revamping our Mountain Weather page - you can find it in the Forecast section of the Menu above.
Recent Avalanches
Avalanche control teams were quite active yesterday, triggering both storm snow and wind slab avalanches at the mid and upper elevations. Backcountry observers found similar conditions on steep terrain near Ben Lomond with avalanches up to 18" deep (estimate).
Excellent recent observations by Debruin and Fogg can be found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wind slab and storm snow avalanches may still be triggered on steep slopes on many aspects at the mid and upper elevations. The drifts will be more prominent in (but not exclusive to) terrain with an easterly component. Lingering storm snow avalanches may be triggered on all aspects and up to a 12-18" deep. Test slopes, cornice drops, and ski cuts are generally effective with these types of soft slab avalanches. Listen for the collapse of wind pillows. Watch for shooting cracks. These are signs that the storm and wind drifts are still reactive. Avoid the growing and still sensitive cornices along the ridgelines.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Despite the significant loading and avalanche control work, no avalanches stepped down into this old snow layering. I suspect we will soon put this problem to bed but I would like to have another day or two of reports and observations that this structure is not a player. Being wrong with this is unacceptable.
Additional Information
Avalanche Rescue is the real deal. You must feel completely confident that you can pull off an avalanche rescue if things go wrong today. Even this may not save the day as roughly 1/4-1/3 of all fatalities are due to traumatic injury. If there is an avalanche accident, CALL 911 and say this is a backcountry emergency. But make no mistake - YOU NEED TO PULL OFF THE RESCUE, AND MOST LIKELY YOU HAVE ONLY 15-20 MINUTES TO DO SO.
KNOW THAT RESCUE TEAMS ASSUME A GREAT DEAL OF RISK in coming in to help injured or avalanched parties. AS ALWAYS, PLEASE OBEY CLOSURES AND UPHILL POLICY RESTRICTIONS AS INDICATED BY THE SKI AREAS.
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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