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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Evelyn Lees
Issued by Evelyn Lees on
Wednesday morning, January 2, 2019
Today the avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep upper elevation slopes where slabs of wind-drifted snow can be found on all aspects because of various wind directions in the past week. The most recent drifts are obvious, but others are hidden beneath the snow. Wind-sheltered slopes have the best skiing and riding, where you may get a bit of sluffing in the steepest terrain.
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Special Announcements
Weather and Snow
Under clear skies, temperatures are averaging 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday morning - in the single digits above zero and low teens. Winds remain from the north, averaging 5 to 10 mph at the mid elevations, with the highest peaks averaging 20 to 35 mph, gusting to 40 mph in the past few hours. There were reports of inconsistent powder, interrupted with wind drifts. Try to find a wind sheltered slope for the best powder, most widespread at the mid and lower elevations, out of the wind zone.
High pressure and steadily warming temperatures will continue through Saturday, with a slight chance for snow from a splitting storm around Sunday or Monday.
Recent Avalanches
There was much less wind loading than expected - perhaps the low density snow sublimated instead of being deposited or can be found out on Antelope Island. There were a few hard wind slabs pried out with explosives and a shallow sluff noted. Most people avoided the upper elevation, wind loaded terrain.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
To borrow words from the Flathead Avalanche Center, “shifting winds have formed several generations of wind slabs on a variety of aspects”. While cornices and surface drifts from Monday evening's easterly winds are easy to see and avoid, the older drifts are hidden beneath newer snow. Wind drifts are widely scattered upper elevation slopes and smaller and more isolated on mid elevation slopes. They will be found on almost any aspect, cross loading across gullies, well off the ridge lines into open bowls and in unusual spots. Approach the steep slopes with caution - these hard wind drifts can not be ski cut and will break above you.
Below: recent wind effects will be easier to identify. Hardesty/Wilson photo from Big Cottonwood/Provo ridge line.
Additional Information
The shallow snowpack at the mid and low elevations is weakening, and a concern for the future. A great observation by Brandt and Fortin 2 days ago noted "Below 7000 ft there is extensive faceting on the ground in thin snow pack areas" and "Very weak snow is forming on the ground due to cold and temperature gradient."
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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