Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Greg Gagne
Issued by Greg Gagne on
Friday morning, March 29, 2019
The avalanche hazard is CONSIDERABLE in the upper elevations, and MODERATE at the mid and lower elevations. Today's avalanche problems include sluffing and soft slabs in the new snow, and fresh wind drifts. Both natural and human-triggered avalanches are possible. At the lower elevations loose wet activity is possible. The avalanche hazard may change very quickly during any period of heavy snowfall, wind-drifting, or warming. Watch for rapidly changing conditions, and adjust your plans accordingly.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
We need your help. In an effort to increase awareness and prevent future fatalities we need to reach more people with our daily avalanche forecasts, expand the Know Before You Go program, and increase the number of on-snow avalanche courses. Please consider a donation to the UAC to help us raise $25,000 by April 8. Help your support of the UAC by making a donation HERE. Thank you for your support!
Couple of new interesting things to read and listen to: (1) The latest blog by Drew "Roping the Wind (Slab)", and (2) UAC podcast featuring Lynne Wolfe - guide, avalanche educator, editor of The Avalanche Review, mentor, role model. This is a can't-miss episode!
Weather and Snow
In a winter that seems to never disappoint, another over-producing snow storm! As of 6 am snowfall totals are 12" in the Ogden mountains. Winds are out of the west/southwest, and very elevation dependent. Atop Mt. Ogden winds are averaging in the 20’s mph, with gusts in the 30’s and 40's mph. However, at mid elevations wind speeds drop off where averages are in the low teens and gusts in the upper teens and 20’s mph.
Snowfall should continue through the morning hours, possibly heavy at times. Snowfall rates should diminish by late morning, but convective showers may pick up in the afternoon, with rounds of on and off show showers, periodically heavy at times. We may pick up another 2-4” during the day today.
It will remain cloudy today, and mountain temperatures will be in the 20’s and low 30’s F. Winds will be out of the west/northwest, averaging in the teens with gusts in the 20's mph. Even stronger winds are expected in traditionally windy spots such as Mount Ogden. Greenhousing is possible, leading to denser snow on all aspects, especially at the low and mid elevations.
Recent Avalanches
No avalanche activity was reported from the backcountry on Thursday in the Ogden mountains.
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With a foot of new snow on the ground, and another 2-4" forecasted throughout the day, avalanches involving new snow can be expected today. The new snow may sluff easily on steep slopes, as well as break out more widely as soft slabs, especially during periods of heavier snowfall or warming. But spring snowstorms are beautifully unpredictable, so pay attention to conditions where you are. Watch for signs of instability including avalanching, cracking in the new snow, and warming of the snow surface with possible greenhousing (where clouds trap warming). I am particularly suspicious of a possible density inversion within today's storm snow where you may find a denser slab on top of weaker, lower-density snow. This layer of lower-density snow can act as a weak layer for avalanching. Pay attention to how the snow feels - a hand pit can quickly determine if there is a density inversion where you will feel softer snow with denser snow on top.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
West/northwest winds will drift snow primarily on aspects facing north, through east, and southeast, but drifting is possible on other aspects due to cross-loading and channeling of winds through terrain features. I am expecting most drifts will be found above 9000'.
Today's new snow and wind will add to the cornices that are found along many upper elevation ridgelines. Be sure to avoid traveling along or underneath corniced ridges.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Preserved surface hoar and faceted, recrystallized snow was buried on the shady terrain of the mid and upper elevations, and this layer may become reactive once again with today's storm. This layer was reactive on Cutler Ridge this past Friday (observation) [photo Bill Brandt] and again on Monday (observation). Warmer temperatures this week may have helped heal this layer, but we will need more field observations before making that call.
Persistent weak layers are especially tricky because they can be triggered remotely (that is, from a distance) or break above you. This layer is most likely found on northerly aspects above about 7000'. You will need to dig down 12-24" to identify this layer, and it may not be visually apparent. However stability tests such as compression tests and extended column tests should help identify and evaluate this layer. Too complicated? Avoid the problem by not traveling on or underneath slopes steeper than 30 degrees on northerly aspects at the mid and upper elevations.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.