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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Tuesday morning, February 12, 2019
The avalanche danger will rise toward the high end of MODERATE today for fresh wind drifts and wet loose avalanches. Avoid being on any of the steep sunlit slopes when they've become wet and unstable. The best and safest skiing and riding will be in the protected glades on low angle slopes.
Big Picture: The danger will be on the rise over the next several days.
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Special Announcements
There have now been four avalanche fatalities in four weeks in Utah. Yesterday, UAC staff investigated the avalanche that took the life of 49 year old Jason Lyman. Find the avalanche report HERE.
Weather and Snow
Skies are clear. Ahead of the next series of storms, the winds have backed to the southwest and are blowing 10-15mph with gusts to 20. Along the highest ridgelines, winds are 25-30mph with gusts to 35. Temps are already at 24 hour highs and in the upper teens. Skiing and riding has been excellent with fantastic coverage at all elevations.
Winds and temps will both increase during the day and we'll see ridgetop temps in the low 20s with base temps reaching freezing. Southwest winds may reach 30mph from the southwest by the afternoon. A series of strong storms arrives tomorrow with the first warm front bringing strong winds, warming temps, and heavy dense snow through later Thursday/early Friday. Rain/snow line may reach as high as 7-7500' until colder air arrives early Friday. 4-8" possible by tomorrow eve with storm totals of 2-3' possible by late Monday.
Recent Avalanches
No reports from the backcountry with ski area control teams triggering a few shallow wind slabs.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Increasing southwest winds will create touchy wind drifts in some areas today with the slight chance of remote triggering. Drifts will be more prominent in the mid to upper elevation northerly to easterly aspects but more widespread as the day advances. If you start to see plumes and wind drifted snow in the open terrain, head for the shelter of the low angle trees for the better and safer skiing and riding. Watch for cracking and variable snow conditions - some clues for potential rising hazard.
Avoid being on and beneath the heavily corniced ridgelines like your life depends on it. These monsters break well back from the ridgeline and may trigger avalanches on slopes below.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The remotely triggered avalanche on Sharp's Mtn on Friday was on a wind loaded northwest slope at 8500'. We consider it along the transitional zone from Ogden to Logan and is an outlier. Still, careful snowpack evaluation will be key if recreating north in the Ogden zone.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Much warmer temps and direct sun will create damp and unstable wet avalanche conditions on the steepest sun-exposed slopes with natural sluffs likely today. Classic tell-tale signs include pinwheels and rollerballs and wet "tree-bombs" with the thaw cycle. By afternoon, human triggered sluffs will be likely but avoidable.
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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