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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples on
Sunday morning, December 13, 2020
Today the avalanche danger is LOW. There may be a few isolated drifts that could produce a very small avalanche, but the main hazard remains hitting rocks, stumps, and other obstacles because the snowpack is so shallow.
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Weather and Snow
Yesterday: 1-3 inches of low-density snow fell on top of 1-2 inches of snow from the previous day.
Currently: Skies cleared overnight and temperatures dropped into the single digits F this morning. Winds are averaging 10-15 mph from the north with gusts of 20-30 mph.
Today: Temperatures will warm into the mid 20s F under partly cloudy skies. More clouds will arrive later today ahead of the next storm. Winds should increase some around midday and blow from the west and southwest.
Snowfall should return around midnight and continue through most of Monday. Because it will remain cold and should snow most of day, snow totals could be 7-11 inches. Tuesday and Wednesday should be mostly dry followed by more snow on Thursday.
Recent Avalanches
No avalanches have been reported.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With a few inches of snow falling yesterday and a few inches the day before, there is minimal snow for winds to transport. Watch for small and very shallow drifts. Otherwise, cold temperatures continue to weaken and facet the fledgling snowpack. This weakening will cause avalanches when more snow arrives. Until then, the greatest hazard continues to be hitting rocks, stumps and other obstacles because the snowpack is so thin. Some of these hazards will be harder to see because they are covered by several inches of new snow.
Additional Information
Weeks of dry weather and clear, cold skies have weakened and faceted the snowpack on many slopes at mid and upper elevations. The only exceptions are slopes facing due south that received direct sunshine and minimal snow exists. The shallow snow at low elevations is mostly strong refrozen snow. As you move between 7000 to 8000 feet, there is an ice crust that becomes thinner and less supportable and the snow underneath it becomes weaker and more faceted (video below).
Check out two excellent observations from the Ogden area mapping the old snow and discussing the implications. Observation one and observation two.
What does this mean? Slab avalanches require 4 ingredients - slab, weak layer, steep slope, and a trigger. The old snow is the weak layer. Snow falling in coming weeks will become the slab. We are the trigger. There is no doubt that avalanches will start happening as more snow comes. The main strategy to avoid avalanches will be to avoid riding on slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
General Announcements
Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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