Forecast: Ogden Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Issued by Nikki Champion on
Thursday morning, January 2, 2020

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all upper and mid-elevation slopes and MODERATE on all lower elevation slopes.

Today, both human-triggered and natural avalanches are likely at upper and mid elevations where heavy snowfall and strong winds, have created dangerous avalanche conditions especially on any slope with fresh wind drifts. Avalanches can also in the new snow unaffected by winds.

Cornices will continue to grow and become sensitive, so avoid traveling close to the edges of corniced ridges.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

This morning, mountain temperatures are in the upper teens F at trailheads and mid-teens F at ridgetops. Northwesterly winds deceased in the valley and trailheads but are still gusting into the upper 20ss at ridgelines. Overnight another 2-4 inches of snow (0.1-0.3 inches of water) fell in the mountains. Storm totals since yesterday morning are 4-10 inches of snow (0.7-1.60 inches of water).

Today, the NW flow will continue to bring light snow showers into the morning before tapering off. Another 1-3" of snow (.05-.15 water) should fall this morning. Northwest winds will increase again this afternoon averaging 15-35 mph and gusting up to 60 mph at ridgelines. Temperatures should be in the mid-20s throughout the day.

Recent Avalanches

Yesterday many sensitive soft slab and hard slabs wind drifted snow avalanches reported in the backcountry and the ski resorts. Yesterday on Cutler Ridge, on Ben Lomond, a soft slab of wind drifted snow at 7,800 feet was triggered remotely from the ridge. This soft slab avalanche was 4" deep and broke 35 feet wide. Many soft slabs of wind drifted snow reported today were triggered remotely, or from a distance.

Photo of soft slab of wind drifted snow from Cutler Ridge. (Photo: McQueen)

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Winds have been strong, with gusts nearing 70 mph at the highest ridgetops. These powerful winds created wind drifts sensitive enough to avalanche naturally last night and into the early morning. Given another 5-10" inches of snow overnight, snow is available for transport and will continue forming fresh wind drifts and on top of yesterday's drifts. These drifts will be widespread near ridgelines at upper elevations but will also be found mid-elevations.

Today the winds will let up for a few hours but will increase again this afternoon. The wind drifts will continue to grow, become more firm and connected, and more sensitive as the winds continue. Look for signs of wind drifted snow, such as soft pillows, cracking, and whumping and avoid them.

Watch for sensitive cornices along upper elevation ridgelines, give cornices a wide berth as they can break back farther than expected.

Photo of avalanche on Ben Lomond Peak on a wind loaded slope (photo: Brandt)

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Before the coming storm, we had great, light, soft powder skiing. On top of that great light powder, we got heavy, wet, warm snow. This creates a dense slab of new snow on top of that weaker layer of snow. The continued snowfall will create sensitive new snow avalanches today, and these may even be triggered at a distance.

Human triggered avalanches are likely, as well as natural avalanches, especially during any period of increased snowfall and increased winds. Pay attention to rapidly changing conditions, and watch for and avoid slopes with cracking, avalanching, even on smaller slopes.

The upper layers of the snowpack are like a game of Jenga in which we have removed the bottom pieces, and just keep adding more to the top. Additional load, such as wind drifted snow and new snow will cause it to topple over and create an avalanche.

Here is a video describing the addition of warm wet snow to the light old snow in the Central Wasatch - the same structure exists in Ogden.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

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