Ad
The National Forest Service Logo
icon-add Observation
Forecasts
Logan Ogden Salt Lake Provo Uintas Skyline Moab Abajos Weather Archives How to read the forecast
Observations & Avalanches
Submit Observation Observations Explorer All Observations Avalanches Fatalities Weather Place Names Map Archives
Education
Avalanche Class List UAC Class List Online Classes Resources and Tutorials Avalanche Awareness Develop Skills
Events
Store
About
Contact Who we are Core Values Staff Board of Directors Past Forecasters Sponsors Annual Reports Sign In
Blog
icon-add Observation
Donate / Join

Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Thursday morning, March 4, 2021
Heightened avalanche conditions exist and there is MODERATE danger on steep slopes in the backcountry. Although becoming less likely, people could still trigger large avalanches failing 2 to 4 feet deep on a buried persistent weak layer near the ground. Warm temperatures, increasing sun, and potential green-housing will also cause elevated loose wet avalanche conditions on sunny and lower elevation slopes.
  • Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Allen Foss of Preston, ID was killed in an avalanche Saturday, February 20, near Sherman Peak. Please consider supporting the Foss family during this difficult time.
Weather and Snow
It's already a balmy 30°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel, and there is 75 inches of total snow and 84% of normal SWE. East winds last night probably did not find much soft snow to drift since warm temperatures have settled the surface snow. Winds have shifted and are now from the southwest and blowing 15 mph at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station and it's 28°F. We're expecting increasingly sunny skies and continued warmth in the mountains today, and fair weather heading into the weekend. Temperatures at 8500' will top out at around 40°F today. We're expecting fair weather to continue into the weekend and temperatures at lower elevations could rise into the 50s. There is a slight chance of some snow showers on Saturday.
In some places, outlying rocky slopes that did not naturally avalanche in February, and areas with thin snow cover, large and dangerous avalanches still might be triggered remotely, or from a distance. Weak, sugary, faceted snow is widespread near the ground across the zone. It appears to be dormant in most areas currently, but dry, loose, faceted snow near the ground is notoriously devious and it is not to be trusted.
I went into the backcountry near Beaver Mountain Tuesday to have a look at the snow, and this is what I found.
Recent Avalanches
A rider remotely triggered an avalanche on a drifted slope somewhere in the Elk Valley Area Sunday (2-28-2021), but details are a bit limited. A cool video of the avalanche was posted on Twitter HERE.
Yesterday afternoon we observed several recent natural wet loose avalanches on south and southwest facing slopes in the Mount Naomi Wilderness.
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Buried persistent weak layers consisting of sugary faceted snow are widespread across the Logan Zone, and the threat of large and deadly avalanches failing on weak snow near the ground remains quite real. Although suspect weak layers appear to be dormant in many areas, the sugary faceted snow near the ground is still dry, and it is likely to continue to be devious. People could trigger a large deep slab avalanche from a thinner part of the slab, and slopes with thin snow cover and therefore a thinner slab are more likely for people to trigger.
  • Avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer might be triggered remotely, from a distance, or worse from below!
  • Cracking and collapsing of the snow are a red flag, indicating unstable snow conditions.
  • Steep rocky slopes at upper elevations, and mid elevation slopes with shallow overall snow cover (and a thinner slab) are the most suspect.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Loose wet avalanches entraining saturated snow are possible in steep lower elevation and sunny terrain again today. Cloud cover could cause green-housing, and shady lower and mid elevation slopes could be in play in the midday warmth. Even a small avalanche could be enough to cause problems, especially on steep slopes with trees or other terrain traps below.
Smaller wet avalanches overrunning a slope with buried persistent weak layers could step down into older snow near the ground and cause a much larger and more destructive avalanche. Stay well back from cornices as they can break much further back than you expect, and avalanches are possible on slopes below.
Additional Information
Do you have the essential avalanche rescue gear (transceiver, probe, and shovel) and do you know how to use them? Watch this video to see how the three pieces of equipment work together. HERE
Please keep practicing with the Beacon Training Park at the Franklin Basin Trailhead. Test yourself and your riding partners. It is free, fun, and easy to use.
General Announcements
Visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
EMAIL ADVISORY. If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you subscribe HERE.
Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
I will update this forecast by around 7:30 tomorrow morning.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
< Previous forecast
Next forecast >